Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
