Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
